Lebanon’s Food and Fuel Stocks Stable Amid Israel-Iran Tensions

But risks loom...

Lebanon’s supply chain for food, fuel, and consumer goods has so far remained intact despite rising regional tensions. But with fears mounting over a possible escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran into a full-scale regional war, Lebanese officials and industry leaders are voicing concern over the country’s limited ability to withstand prolonged disruptions.

During Israel’s war on Lebanon nearly two decades ago, the country operated under a wartime economy but managed to avoid any major disruptions in the supply of essential goods, including oil, wheat, and other food staples. However, the latest round of hostilities has highlighted a structural weakness: Lebanon’s strategic reserves of key commodities remain unchanged in both times of peace and conflict, and the country lacks the capacity to significantly scale them up.

Speaking to Nidaa Al Watan, Mohammad Abou Haidar, Director General at the Ministry of Economy and Trade, said the current tensions have not yet impacted Lebanon’s supply chain.

“There have been no adverse effects on food security, and our stock of food and consumer goods remains stable,” he said. “But the concern is that if the conflict expands to engulf the wider region, it could lead to shipment delays and higher prices.”

He warned that any disruption in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could force shipping vessels bound for Lebanon to reroute around the Horn of Africa and the Strait of Gibraltar, causing delays of up to three weeks per shipment.

Abou Haidar added that a broader war would likely drive up insurance premiums on shipments, inevitably leading to higher prices for all imported goods.

Hani Bohsali, head of the Syndicate of Food Importers, sought to reassure the public, saying Lebanon currently has a food stockpile sufficient for roughly three months of local consumption.

“Imports are proceeding according to schedule, and most of them arrive via sea,” he said, noting that maritime shipping lanes remain safe, for now, as long as military operations are contained between Israel and Iran.

Still, growing concerns over a possible Iranian move to close the Strait of Hormuz have global markets on edge. The strait is a vital passage for 30% of the world’s oil and 20% of its liquefied natural gas. Its closure would likely send energy prices soaring, and Lebanon would not be immune to the fallout.

Abou Haidar acknowledged that global oil prices are already rising and noted that Lebanon’s oil reserves would last only one to one-and-a-half months, excluding the volumes stored at local fuel stations and by private distributors. The country’s gas reserves, meanwhile, would cover a period of two to two-and-a-half months, again excluding distribution point inventories.

“This is the maximum capacity Lebanon can store,” he said. “There is no way to increase our petroleum storage levels beyond that.”

Any escalation in the conflict, particularly if it affects shipping routes through Bab el-Mandeb, would likely drive up international oil and gas prices further. That, in turn, would increase shipping, transportation, and insurance costs.

“If vessels are forced to reroute via longer paths, local fuel prices will rise accordingly,” Abou Haidar said. “We’re not seeing any direct consequences yet from the Israel-Iran conflict, but there’s legitimate concern about what could happen if the war expands.”

The industrial sector is already reacting to those risks. As with past periods of instability, manufacturers have increased their importation of raw materials and ramped up exports in anticipation of potential supply chain disruptions and to avoid delays on international orders. The aim is also to preemptively lock in lower shipping and insurance rates before costs rise further.

When asked about potential emergency measures, Abou Haidar said there was currently no need for new actions.

“As long as maritime routes remain open, there’s no justification for additional steps—especially since we’ve followed a precautionary policy for the past five years,” he said.

That policy involves maintaining a food and consumer goods stockpile sufficient for three to four months, which is still in place due to the continued functionality of supply chains. He noted, however, that storage capacity for food is naturally constrained by expiration dates.

On wheat, he said Lebanon currently holds reserves sufficient for three to four months and that concerns over wheat stocks have eased since the government lifted subsidies.

“We are not worried about the availability of basic goods,” Abou Haidar concluded. “Even during the last Israeli aggression on Lebanon, we didn’t experience shortages. What we fear is the economic impact of an expanding war, thus the automatic spike in prices that would follow.”