Escalating Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Tensions on Lebanese Front

Hezbollah and allies under strain...

By Chadi Hileneh (originally in Arabic) | English version prepared by Akhbar al-Yawm

The recent wave of targeted strikes deep inside Iran, hitting senior figures and strategic infrastructure, has stirred echoes far beyond Tehran. In Beirut, the scenes of silent assassinations and pinpoint explosions have revived memories of Lebanon’s own experience during the so-called "War of Attrition", a chapter marked by surgical strikes and systematic dismantling of military frameworks. The resemblance is hard to ignore, as regional confrontation increasingly shifts into less conventional and more covert terrain.

What’s particularly striking is the current posture of Tehran’s allies in the region. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and certain Iraqi factions appear strained, operating under mounting pressure. While none have officially entered the latest round of Israeli-Iranian escalation, they remain well within the scope of Israeli military activity, according to sources cited by the "Akhbar al-Yawm" agency.

Israeli decision-makers, the sources note, are unlikely to take at face value any claims of neutrality by Iran’s affiliates, especially after October 7, 2023, when multiple fronts lit up simultaneously from Gaza to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. 

In light of this, sources close to Hezbollah caution that a lack of meaningful international deterrence could embolden Israel to push further, perhaps even toward a ground operation in Lebanon. With Israel’s confidence reportedly bolstered by its recent success inside Iranian territory, the prospect of escalation cannot be dismissed.

Iran, for its part, continues to view its missile capabilities as the cornerstone of its strategic deterrence posture. In response to the longstanding weaknesses in its air force, Tehran has prioritized the development of a sophisticated missile arsenal, considered among the most extensive in the region and, by some accounts, globally. This arsenal comprises a range of ballistic and cruise missiles with short-, medium-, and long-range capabilities, including systems reportedly capable of reaching intercontinental distances.

Iranian officials maintain that the accuracy and adaptability of these missiles provide a critical strategic edge. Beyond their potential to target key Israeli infrastructure, they are seen as tools to alter the broader regional equation, enabling Iran to project power and shape the terms of engagement across multiple theaters.