Antoun el-Fata, "Akhbar al-Yawm" agency

Lebanon and Syria: A New Era in Bilateral Relations?

Difficulties caused by the incomplete stability in Syria

In recent months, Lebanon and Syria have undergone significant transformations, marking a departure from a prolonged era in which regional and international powers (both Arab and non-Arab) played a key role in shaping their relations, managing disputes, and influencing Syria’s occupation of Lebanon and its deep interventions in Lebanese affairs.

Despite these recent shifts, the path of Lebanese-Syrian relations remains "damaged" and in need of external maintenance, fresh regional and international intervention to pave the way forward, this time primarily driven by Gulf states.

Are Lebanon and Syria still incapable of handling their bilateral relations independently, state-to-state? Is Syria’s persistent ambition to exert influence over Lebanon a generational issue, unaffected by changing circumstances, regimes, and political dynamics? If this pattern continues in the coming years, what will be the consequences for both countries, especially Lebanon?

What may seem necessary, beneficial, and even ideal today could evolve in unforeseen ways as regional and international circumstances continue to shift, along with the objectives of external actors influencing Lebanese-Syrian relations. Given these dynamics, it may be in both countries’ best interest to engage in direct dialogue, face-to-face, to address past grievances and establish the foundation for a transparent, sovereign, and balanced relationship. Such an approach would align with the practices of independent nations that maintain stable and cooperative ties with their neighbors.

A political source emphasized that while it is possible for Lebanon and Syria to reach a stage where their relations are free from external oversight, achieving this under current conditions remains challenging. 

Speaking to "Akhbar al-Yawm" agency, the same source noted that while some level of external mediation may still be necessary for now, this does not inherently pose a risk to either country or create a zero-sum dynamic. "There is no expected clash of interests between Lebanon and Syria", the source added.

The source concluded: "The likelihood of a conflict of interest between the two countries will further diminish if stability is achieved on both sides. Ultimately, Lebanon and Syria depend on each other for stability".