Antoun el-Fata, "Akhbar al-Yawm" agency

Assessing Lebanon's Potential Role in US-Russia Diplomacy on the Assad Regime's Legacy

Marwan Amin: The Priority Now is to Implement the Ceasefire Agreement and Reforms

As US-Russia relations continue to improve and advance, both at the bilateral level and regarding the Ukrainian crisis, questions arise about the potential impact of this dynamic on other geopolitical matters.

The Assad Regime: A Diplomatic Opportunity?

Given the somewhat “affectionate” (metaphorically speaking) relationship between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the exchange of mutual benefits and interests in various areas, including Moscow’s expressed willingness to assist Washington in negotiations with Iran, could Lebanon seize this moment?

Would it be possible for Lebanese officials, possibly in coordination with their Syrian counterparts, to form a joint delegation to pursue the case of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who relocated to Russia, leaving behind hundreds of unresolved issues requiring thorough investigations, accountability, and justice? Could such an initiative be undertaken in collaboration with the new US administration?

To what extent could this effort succeed in the Trump-Putin era, particularly within the framework of ongoing US-Russia negotiations? Could Moscow, as part of a broader exchange of interests, be encouraged to disclose key details about the Assad regime and its five-decade-long rule over Syria, and, to some extent, Lebanon?

However, in an interview to "Akhbar al-Yawm" agency, political analyst Marwan Amin said that such an initiative remains premature. He argues that:

US-Russia Relations Are Not Fully Stabilized: While there has been progress in bilateral ties, they have not yet reached the degree of alignment necessary for a breakthrough on such a sensitive issue.

Lebanon’s Limited Diplomatic Leverage: Currently, Lebanon lacks substantial influence with the US administration. While Washington, alongside Saudi Arabia and Gulf nations, maintains hopes for Lebanese leadership under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, these expectations have yet to be met with concrete actions, particularly regarding state sovereignty.

Hezbollah’s Influence and Internal Reforms: Washington and its regional allies remain concerned about Hezbollah’s continued military presence and activities, as well as the lack of substantial anti-corruption measures. These factors diminish Lebanon’s credibility and ability to request such diplomatic initiatives.

Amin emphasizes that US-Lebanese relations have not improved sufficiently for Lebanon to make such a request to the Trump administration. If such an appeal were made in the current circumstances, the immediate US response would likely be to urge Lebanon to first address Hezbollah’s weapons, enforce internal governance reforms, maintain its sovereignty, and respect the ceasefire agreement to prevent future conflicts.

Ultimately, Amin concludes that the Trump administration's immediate focus remains the Ukraine conflict, making it unlikely that broader discussions on Assad’s legacy will gain traction in the near term.