Daoud Rammal, “Akhbar al-Yawm” agency

Serious international and Arab guarantees, political solution aimed at ending paralysis in constitutional institutions

There are signs of a comprehensive settlement that could lead to a significant shift in the course of the Lebanese crises, specifically at the level of military and political tensions, foremost of which is the Open Israeli war on Lebanon. The International proposal focuses on working towards a ceasefire on the Lebanese front with the implementation of international resolution 1701 under serious international and Arab guarantees, in parallel with a political solution aimed at ending the paralysis in the Lebanese constitutional institutions, most notably the election of a new president of the Republic.

According to diplomatic circles, "this settlement requires that the various parties commit to fully activating the provisions of UN Resolution 1701, including the control of the Lebanese border with Israel, activating the role of the Lebanese Army as a guarantor of security and stability, and the removal of any unofficial armed groups from the border area. This agreement, if completed, will represent a step towards restoring stability to southern Lebanon, where international efforts aim to establish an effective monitoring mechanism to ensure that there will be no violations or new escalation".

What about the American and Arab role in ensuring implementation?

The diplomatic circles explain, via the "Akhbar al-Yawm" agency, that "the administration of US President Joe Biden is taking action with international and Arab parties to find a formula to ensure the achievement of this Agreement, amid increasing pressure to restore stability to Lebanon in the face of economic and security deterioration. This move comes within an international consensus on the importance of a diplomatic solution, as prominent Arab countries are ready to support these efforts, which creates an opportunity to neutralize any possible local Resistance that may refuse to implement the settlement".

On the impact of the settlement on the political situation in Lebanon, diplomatic circles point out that "if this initiative succeeds, it may pave the way towards a political solution that alleviates the sharp divisions between the Lebanese parties. This solution includes supporting the election of a consensual president and the reactivation of constitutional institutions. Observers believe that any settlement that includes a ceasefire and the restoration of stability to the south may strengthen local and international confidence in Lebanon's ability to get out of its crises, but this requires a Lebanese Will to support international initiatives".

As for the challenges facing the settlement, diplomatic circles say: "despite high hopes, challenges remain. Some internal forces may oppose this course, fearing loss of influence or conceding certain gains. But observers believe that the strong international Will, with the support of the United States and influential Arab countries, may push towards achieving this solution, especially if efforts are joined to break the political deadlock and achieve sustainable stability in Lebanon".

But does the settlement succeed in achieving stability?

The same circles consider that "this settlement seems like a rare opportunity that may contribute to putting an end to the escalation and easing the burden on Lebanon, but its success depends on joining local and international efforts together, if the parties concerned commit to implementing the terms of the agreement and ensuring its continuity".