Lebanon at a Crossroads as US-Iran Nuclear Talks Raise Regional Uncertainty

Iran’s regional influence challenged by changing geopolitical realities

By Antoun el-Fata (originally in Arabic) | English version prepared by Akhbar al-Yawm

As U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations gather pace, Lebanon finds itself once again at the edge of regional power dynamics, with some domestic factions quietly hoping to gain influence depending on how the talks unfold.

Political source says, via the "Akhbar al-Yawm" agency that while the country struggles under the weight of political stagnation and economic collapse, certain groups are delaying internal decisions in anticipation of a possible deal, particularly one that may redefine Iran’s role in the region. For these factions, a revived agreement could offer an opportunity to reclaim lost ground or reinforce their political base at home.

However, the source warns that Lebanon’s continued reliance on regional settlements as a buffer risks deeper instability. Temporary political compromises, he argue, often provide no real protection, instead laying the foundation for future conflict and further national disintegration.

Against this backdrop, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent statement that he has "less confidence" in Iran’s willingness to halt uranium enrichment has added further uncertainty. Whether Trump’s remarks signal a strategic stance or political posturing, the underscores the volatility of any potential deal.

The lesson for Lebanon, many argue, is clear: disengage from the region’s proxy tensions and focus on national sovereignty. The country’s recurring experiences with war, displacement, and destruction are not abstract risks, they are lived realities that demand structural change and political accountability.

The same source told the "Akhbar al-Yawm" agency that Washington remains firm on a key condition: any agreement with Iran must include a rollback of its influence across the Middle East. "The United States is unlikely to endorse a deal that leaves Tehran free to continue expanding its footprint in places like Lebanon", the source said.

The source added that Iran’s logistical access to Lebanon, once secured through Syria, has been severely curtailed. "The political and military shifts in Syria over recent months have closed that route, and both maritime and aerial corridors are now under tight international monitoring", he said.

These developments, the source noted, may prevent Iran from re-establishing the military reach it once had in Lebanon.

As the nuclear talks continue, Lebanon stands at a pivotal moment. Whether it chooses to insulate itself from regional confrontations or remain entangled in broader conflicts may determine its long-term stability, and its ability to rebuild from within.