Lebanon's Presidential Stalemate: Fears of a 'Muslim Brotherhood Crescent' and Uncertain Outcomes

Either Aoun is elected in the first round, or he is not elected at all...

“Akhbar al-Yawm” agency

Amid the ambiguity surrounding the session on the 9th of this month, just hours before the scheduled general assembly, a well-informed political source considered that the fall of the Syrian regime has added further complexity to the already intricate local and regional issues. The source said: The same parties that were once worried about what’s called the "Shia Crescent" in the region are now facing a sense of anticipation and anxiety that it may be replaced by a "Muslim Brotherhood Crescent. This, according to the source, explains the noticeable diplomatic activity directed toward Lebanon, most notably the clear Saudi intervention in the Lebanese crisis.

The source, speaking to the "Akhbar al-Yawm" agency, pointed out that the struggle over the presidential file is not merely about the preferences of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Hezbollah, or Christian forces. There is also an Islamic push against Syria, specifically from Turkey and Qatar, saying: "It is true that the post-Assad image of Syria has not yet taken shape, but the repercussions of this dynamic might reach Lebanon, potentially putting it under the grip of 'a new Islam,' similar to what happened in Egypt after the revolution when Mohamed Morsi was elected president, only to see his rule last barely a year".

The source continued: "In this context, Saudi Arabia has stepped in to pull the rug out from under the Turkish-Qatari duo”, pointing out that “Riyadh's serious initiative came in response to Qatar's proposal to Speaker Berri, which involved electing General Elias al-Baysari as president in exchange for a substantial reconstruction aid package worth $5 billion”.

The same source added: “Despite Speaker Berri’s prioritization of reconstruction and the return of people to their homes, he rejected any risky ventures unless the Qatari candidate received Saudi backing”. Furthermore, the source noted that “Qatar cannot act ‘alone in the region’."

In response to a question, the source clarified that the completion of the presidential file is not just about pressuring the Shiite duo, as there are numerous other complications.

As for the fate of Thursday's session, the source commented: "If a president is elected, Lebanon will enter a phase of partial stability, linked to the ongoing regional tensions. However, this is unlikely, and the more probable scenario is postponement until next spring. This period will not be free of security disturbances, including Israeli strikes at various levels."

When asked about the chances of Army Commander Joseph Aoun, the source replied: "Caution is crucial. Voting for any other candidate does not carry negative consequences, but casting votes for Aoun without his election would prevent a second round from being convened. Moreover, these votes -likely fewer than 65-would be seen as a referendum on his current position rather than an endorsement of him as president. In other words, he must either win in the first round or not at all."

The source concluded by saying: "It remains unclear whether Hezbollah has received guarantees from the American and Saudi sides regarding the south and an Israeli withdrawal. If such guarantees are secured, there may be room to consider electing the Army Commander, but not on the 9th of this month."