Daoud Rammal, “Akhbar al-Yawm” agency

Mikati's Stance: A Message of Reassurance or Political Caution?

Aiming to calm internal tensions and prevent escalating public and political unrest

Mikati Denies Official Notification of Israeli Intentions Not to Withdraw from the South

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati's recent statement denying receipt of any official notification regarding Israel's alleged intention not to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon within the 60-day deadline set in the ceasefire agreement has sparked significant debate. This denial raises questions about Israel’s motives and the broader implications for Lebanon's political and security stability.

Political and Security Context

In the political and security context, a well-informed source tells the "Akhbar al-Yawm" agency that "since the cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel, there have been signs of potential developments in southern Lebanon. The internationally brokered ceasefire agreement clearly stipulated a timeline for Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territories. However, as this deadline approaches, speculation has increased about Israel’s intentions, especially in light of the Israeli verbal escalation and repeated accusations against Lebanon".

The source notes that Mikati's denial can be interpreted from two angles:

Reassurance for Domestic Stability:

Mikati may be aiming to reassure the Lebanese public and political parties, seeking to prevent unrest given the sensitivity of the southern issue, which holds significant national importance.

Political and diplomatic caution

The denial could be part of a diplomatic strategy to avoid escalation with Israel or to avoid jeopardizing ongoing negotiations with international parties over other issues, including finalizing land borders.

The source analyzes the Israeli leaks and confirms that "if Israel's intention not to withdraw its forces is confirmed, it indicates multiple strategies, the most prominent of which is Israel's escalatory policy. This step may be part of a pressure tactic on Lebanon to achieve political or military gains, or to change the new rules of engagement as outlined in the mutual commitments paper between Lebanon and Israel. However, Israel might be seeking to redraw the security landscape in the south, especially amid discussions about military reinforcements and unusual movements to impose security arrangements outside the terms of the agreement."

The Potential Repercussions

The source addressed the potential repercussions, indicating that internally, The Lebanese government would face mounting challenges, particularly in managing public expectations for a strong response to any perceived violation of national sovereignty. On the regional and international front, any escalation in the south could prompt international intervention, either through the United Nations or major global powers, to de-escalate tensions and impose new conditions on both sides.

Lebanon’s Response: Diplomacy and Unity

The same source considered that "Mikati's statement reflects the complexities of Lebanon’s current political landscape, which is already strained by overlapping crises. With Israel’s intentions still unclear, Lebanon must take proactive steps by strengthening diplomatic efforts and unifying its internal stance to ensure the protection of its sovereignty and adherence to international resolutions, especially those related to the south".