Daoud Rammal, “Akhbar al-Yawm” agency

How will peaceful uprising in Syria affect Lebanese reality?

Accelerating the election of the president of the Republic and the recomposition of power

In the context of historically intertwined Lebanese-Syrian relations, any major political transition in Syria is a factor influencing the Lebanese reality. The peaceful uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will have profound repercussions on Lebanon, especially in light of the current political crisis plaguing the country, most notably the ongoing presidential vacuum, the disintegration of institutions, and the economic and social collapse.

The impact of the coup on the Lebanese presidential scene

Lebanon has historically been an arena directly affected by regional developments. The coup against Bashar al-Assad may create a new dynamic that accelerates the election of a president of the Republic for the following reasons:

1.     The decline of traditional Syrian influence: Despite the decline of direct Syrian hegemony since 2005, Damascus continues to be a reference for some Lebanese political forces. A coup against Assad's authority would lead to a vacuum of influence, forcing these powers to reassess their calculations and negotiate domestically instead of relying on the outside.

2.     New regional balances: The coup could rearrange regional alliances, prompting international and regional actors in Lebanon (such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and France) to accelerate efforts to avoid further political vacuum.

3.     Popular and international pressure: The transition in Syria opens the way for greater pressure on Lebanese politicians, especially with growing fears of worsening crises if the presidential vacuum continues.

Re-composition of power and institutions

The change in Syria may be an opportunity to reconsider the structure of the Lebanese state:

1.     Public Administration reform: Regional transformations may prompt the international community to provide conditional support on a comprehensive reform program, which will strengthen pressure to modernize institutions and end rampant corruption.

2.     The role of the Lebanese army: As a result of the transformations in Syria and the border challenges, the Lebanese army will become the main pillar as a guarantor of internal stability.

3.     Restoring political balances: The coup against Assad may weaken the influence of some political forces loyal to him, reshaping the political map in Lebanon in favor of other forces.

Possible risks

Despite the opportunities, there may be serious challenges:

1.     Escalating internal tensions: Some political forces may consider the loss of support for Damascus an existential threat, prompting them to adopt more hardline positions.

2.     Additional regional interventions: The Syrian vacuum could open the door to other countries' interventions in Lebanon, further complicating the political scene.

3.     Security chaos: The collapse of the regime in Syria has caused a new wave of refugees and the risks of increased armed activities on the Lebanese-Syrian border.

Steps to deal with the next stage

1.     Launching an inclusive national dialogue: The situation requires working to calm internal tensions and rebuild trust between the various political parties.

2.     Strengthening international cooperation: Potential international attention should be leveraged to support stability and reform in Lebanon.

3.     Reshaping the social contract: The coup against Assad is an opportunity for the Lebanese to reconsider their sectarian political system and work on building a citizenship state, through the application of reform clauses in the Constitution.

The transformations in Syria, especially the peaceful uprising against Assad, may represent a turning point for Lebanon, providing a rare opportunity to break out of the state of political and economic stalemate. However, the realization of this opportunity depends on the ability of political forces to react to changes flexibly and put the national interest above the categorical interests. Lebanon is facing a historic moment that requires courage and boldness to change.